Keywords: bayesian |

## Summary

Multiple levels of data analysis go from Frequentist to more and more Bayesian, starting from MLE and going to full bayes via Type-2 MLE (Empirical Bayes). The outstanding observation about these levels is the increasing reliance on integration as we get more Bayesian.

Throughout this course, you have (and will) see multiple levels of analysis. These levels are summarized in this table, taken from Murphyâ€™s Machine Learning from a Probabilistic Perspective book:

Method Definition
Maximum Likelihood $\hat{\theta} = argmax_{\theta} p(D \vert \theta)$
MAP estimation $\hat{\theta} = argmax_{\theta} p(D \vert \theta)p(\theta \vert \eta)$
ML-2 (Empirical Bayes) $\hat{\eta} = argmax_{\eta} \int d\theta \,p(D \vert \theta)p(\theta \vert \eta) = argmax_{\eta}p(D \vert \eta)$
MAP-2 $\hat{\eta} = argmax_{\eta} \int d\theta \,p(D \vert \theta)p(\theta \vert \eta)p(\eta) = argmax_{\eta}p(D \vert \eta)p(\eta)$
Full Bayes $p(\theta, \eta \vert D) \propto p(D \vert \theta)p(\theta \vert \eta) p(\eta)$

### Maximum Likelihood

This is the first technique we learned and used. There is no notion of priors here, juat a likelihood $\cal{L}$ which we maximize (or equivalently minimize cost $-\ell = - log(\cal{L})$ .

### MAP

Once we decide to commit being bayesian, we construct a posterior. We can decide to not sample from the posterior, but instead use a delta-function posterior with mass only at the MAP. This is the next level of analysis, where we run optimization on the functional form of the posterior. Essentially we are sampling from the likelihood (sampling distribution) at the MAP.

### Empirical Bayes (ML-2)

The third level is to compute the posterior predictive distribution analytically, and optimize that against the hyper-priors. This is called empirical bayes. Its form is very similar to cross-validation, except that instead of estimating the parameters of the model, we marginalize over them in producing the posterior predictive. This is a very popular method in the context of conjugate priors, as the posterior predictive is often tractable (beta+binomial gives beta-binomial, gamma+poisson gives negative binomial, normal+normal gives normal). Often, in place of optimizing, we will match moments: match the mean of the posterior predictive against the mean of data, and similarly for variance.

This method is often called Maximum-Likelihood type 2 as we are optimizing the posterior-marginalized likelihood with respect to the hyper-parameters.

### MAP-2

Remember that there are hyper-priors on the hyper-parameters? MAP-2 simply multiplies these into the posterior-predictive before optimizing. This allows hyper-parameters to influence our inference. But, since the game in hierarchical modelling is to be relatively un-informative on the hyper-priors, this typically does not change things much

### Full Bayes

Finally, we can be fully Bayesian. We compute the entire posterior and thus posterior-predictive by sampling, and marginalize to find the distribution of any parameter we want, and sample-compute the expectations we desire.

One can think of ascending this hierarchy as one in which you carry out more integrals and less derivatives, and thus go in a direction where overfitting is controlled better and better.